The Good, and the Bad in 2011

The affect on aircraft sales during this recession was out of character as top-end GA aircraft continued to sell while almost all other segments suffered. Courtesy: Piper Aircraft

I’ve been writing this Left Seat blog for EAA with the generous sponsorship of Aspen Avionics for a year. I don’t think it’s my fault, but 2011 has not been the most memorable year in aviation, but there was some good mixed in with the bad. 

The Recession Continues

The most depressing aspect of 2011 is how the economic recession hung over general aviation. Except for the largest cabin and longest range jets such as the Gulfstreams, Falcons and Globals, the manufacturing of new airplanes was down at least a little compared to the terrible year of 2010. The best various categories other than the large jets did was to stay even with the previous year.

I have worked in the industry through many up and down cycles—including the biggest bust of all in the early 1980s—and there has been a pattern to past recessions and recoveries. The norm was for piston sales to slump first, followed by turboprops, and then jets. Recovery would follow in the same order with pistons being first to show positive gains in sales.

But this recession has not followed that pattern. The biggest and most expensive jets slumped the least and are the only category to be at or even above pre-recession levels. Instead of being first to recover, pistons continue to slide. And turboprops languish in the middle.

Everybody has a theory about why this aviation recession is different, and most are probably partially correct. My guess is that at the very top the wealth and success of the individuals and companies who buy those airplanes is so great that the price reflects only a small part of their total assets. But for the pistons, turboprops, and light and medium jets, the cost is very large in comparison to the overall assets of a typical buyer. I think the lack of confidence in the near term economic future has thrown a wet blanket on the small and medium cost airplane buyer, and until some clear global economic trend takes hold, we’re in for more wait and see—but not buy—for all but the most expensive jets.

The BARR Fight

When regulations change it’s usually pretty easy to understand the motives of the government. We may not agree with the rule changes, but those making the changes believe the new rules will make flying safer, or will raise more money for the government, or will promote growth through a tax break. But when the federal government changed the blocked aircraft registration request (BARR) last summer, I and everyone else were left scratching our heads searching for a motive.

For about 15 years the FAA has made its national air traffic activity feed available to the public. Airport authorities, FBOs, weather forecasters, and individual airplane owners welcomed the information on the movements of every airplane in the IFR system. But some airplane owners did not want the exact details of every flight they made posted on the web for the entire world to see.

The FAA reinstated the ability to keep their flights, like this one Mac took last spring, private. Courtesy: Flightaware.com

That simple request for privacy makes sense so the FAA created the BARR. All an airplane owner needed to do was request that flights by his aircraft not be made available to the public, though the FAA and all public safety groups would still have access. The BARR program was administered by the NBAA so there was virtually no cost to the government. And the BARR system was working well with no complaints from either side.

Then, suddenly, the Department of Transportation—the FAA’s boss—announced that BARR would end. The reasons for ending BARR were vague and made no sense. Come to think of it, the reasons were not really vague; there just wasn’t a reason to end a program that granted citizens a normal level of privacy that all other modes of transportation receive. But the DOT simply rammed the change through.

Every aviation group I can think of, including EAA, joined together to demand that BARR be reinstated. The FAA looked on more or less helplessly with its orders coming from the DOT. But Congress did listen and included in an FAA funding bill a demand that BARR be returned. That is something the DOT cannot and did not ignore.

So BARR is back, but many of us are still wondering, “What was that all about?” I’m glad we in general aviation won the fight, but what a waste of taxpayer and airplane owner time and money. I still can’t guess what the heck the DOT was thinking.

The iPad

Portable computers of all types in the cockpit are hardly new, but the Apple iPad hit some kind of previously undiscovered longing in thousands of pilots whether they fly Gulfstreams or LSA. I have never seen anything like it. Pilots just can’t get enough of iPad apps, and with unbelievable speed, the FAA has approved its use for essential data storage and presentation in everything from airliners to light airplanes.

I guess the speed at which the iPad retrieves and displays any kind of text or graphics is new. Its color brightness and clarity is better. And its size is tiny. Pick your own reason, but no electronic device I can think of has ever been welcomed—actually demanded—in more cockpits as quickly as the iPad.

iPads and other tablets are becoming ubiquitous on airplane flight decks big and small.

Synthetic Vision

It’s been several years since a computer-created view of the terrain features ahead were first approved for cockpit display. Early versions were pretty crude with very little detail and only the tallest mountains prominent. But then Gulfstream’s PlaneView cockpit was certified with extremely detailed synthetic vision, and the technology was off to the races.

Garmin brought excellent synthetic vision to its flat glass displays such as the G1000 and G600. Avidyne and Aspen also developed the technology. Dynon raced ahead with syn viz for amateur-built airplanes. The technology quickly migrated onto portable cockpit displays, and, of course, to apps for the iPad.

Has synthetic vision prevented a single accident yet? I don’t know. It certainly seems like it must have, but I have not seen a report from a pilot who was headed for the hills but pulled up, or turned, to avoid the terrain shown on his syn viz display.

Whether syn viz ever makes a last minute save is not the issue for me. What it really does is complete the transition from the old “steam gauge” instruments to a real primary flight display (PFD) that shows us not only attitude and airspeed, but our overall situation on departure or approach. If I turn the syn viz display off in my airplane—which I never do except as a reminder—it’s almost like flying from clear air into a cloud. We’re not quite to a flying world of perpetual VFR, but thanks to syn viz we can see that world from here.

Rockwell Collins is working on its HGS-3500 system that fits physically and fiscally in smaller airplanes.

What’s Up for 2012?

My great hope is that 2012 will be different than 2011. But my fear is that we will see more of the same. We can still hope for an improved economy, no new onerous regulation, and continuing advances in technology. That’s what this time of the year is for—hope. Happy New Year.